Feed International - April/May 2017 - 13

FeedInternational ❙ 13

this bigger picture, it is no wonder that new additives
are introduced each year, and old ones continue to
enhance their claims, whereas new companies keep
emerging trying to market new and old products to
a shrinking clientele that is looking for immediate
solutions now more than ever. After all, we still
do not know how to replace antibiotics effectively,
inexpensively and constantly; in other words, we have
considerable room for improvement and growth.
If we were to consider the business of gut health
additives for the next decade, we would have to ponder
over all possibilities, even the most extreme. It is logical to assume that each scenario has its own proponents, especially when jobs and businesses are affected
by the success or failure of all other possible scenarios.
This remains a fluid market where all outcomes are
possible. Here is what I believe could happen, in no
particular order.

1

Nothing will change

Antibiotics will continue to be banned
in even more countries,
reaching a level where
they will be considered virtually
withdrawn from the global market.
In contrast, the current trend to use
the existing gut health additives will
continue and even increase. New additives will find it harder to be registered and share a
piece of this market. According to most professionals, this is the most likely scenario, at least for the
foreseeable future. Based on this assumption, many
new players are considering entering the market, and
others expanding their portfolio, whereas only a few
continue to investigate new additives.
The real danger in such an outcome comes from
the consolidation in buyers and suppliers. A shrinking number of buyers (those who feed animals) will
look to buy an increasing number of additives from
a very small number of suppliers (manufacturers) -
hence the "supermarket" effect in which all suppliers
will sell all additives up to the point that these additives will become commodities with low margins and

April/May 2017 ❙ www.WATTAgNet.com

standardized specifications. This will definitely benefit
the buyers, but it will ensure the same fate to smaller
additives suppliers as that enjoyed today by most premix manufacturers: extinction.

2

A super additive will emerge

This is the dream of every researcher and
additive supplier. It happened before, and it
can certainly happen again. Lamentably, this
will also probably mean this new additive will enjoy a
narrow window of success before being copied, regulated or replaced by other products. Being first is important, and additive suppliers acknowledge this fact
by spending vast sums of money on research. Some
will ask what is left to discover, especially after the
sprint of research activity in the past 20 years, and perhaps they are right. Others point to the undisputable
fact that new additives, even the best ones, will have to
face a battle uphill, not only against fierce competition
from other additives, but also from an increasingly difficult regulation framework.

Read more online: Good poultry gut health

needs a broad approach,
www.WATTAgNet.com/articles/24181

Despite all these difficulties, and if I were to make
a bold prediction here, I would say any new super additive would no longer be feed-borne; I believe it will
be something administered through the water, the next
frontier in nutrition and health management.

3

Microbes will produce their own
additives

It is surprising how many drugs and additives are produced today by microorganisms, such as bacteria and yeasts. What if these same
additives and drugs were to be produced in the gut
by specifically designed microorganisms? Does the
world of direct-fed microbials (probiotics) hold the
key to our future?


http://www.WATTAgNet.com/articles/24181 http://www.WATTAgNet.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Feed International - April/May 2017

Feed International - April/May 2017
Contents
In the Mix
Happenings
2017 NUTRITION & FEED SURVEY: Antibiotic-free animal feed production grows worldwide
100TH YEAR SERIES: Gut health additives: four possible future scenarios
7 alternative vegetable protein sources for broilers
Belarus feed manufacturers pressured by falling margins
How to use medium-chain fatty acids in pig diets
FVG Select to combine conferences, expo, networking
World Pork Expo returns to Iowa State Fairgrounds
Products
Marketplace
Advertisers’ Index
Feed International - April/May 2017 - Feed International - April/May 2017
Feed International - April/May 2017 - Cover2
Feed International - April/May 2017 - Contents
Feed International - April/May 2017 - In the Mix
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 3
Feed International - April/May 2017 - Happenings
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 5
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 2017 NUTRITION & FEED SURVEY: Antibiotic-free animal feed production grows worldwide
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 7
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 8
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 9
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 10
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 11
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 100TH YEAR SERIES: Gut health additives: four possible future scenarios
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 13
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 14
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 15
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 7 alternative vegetable protein sources for broilers
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 17
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 18
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 19
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 20
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 21
Feed International - April/May 2017 - Belarus feed manufacturers pressured by falling margins
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 23
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 24
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 25
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 26
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 27
Feed International - April/May 2017 - How to use medium-chain fatty acids in pig diets
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 29
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 30
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 31
Feed International - April/May 2017 - FVG Select to combine conferences, expo, networking
Feed International - April/May 2017 - 33
Feed International - April/May 2017 - World Pork Expo returns to Iowa State Fairgrounds
Feed International - April/May 2017 - Products
Feed International - April/May 2017 - Advertisers’ Index
Feed International - April/May 2017 - Cover3
Feed International - April/May 2017 - Cover4
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