Feed International - October/November 2017 - 19
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FeedInternational ❙ 19
Trend projections for proteins
Looking at long-term production trends, aquaculture and
poultry are clearly winning the
competitive battle for share of
the global farmed animal protein
market. The battle is almost entirely one-sided. Only pork is even
close to keeping up. (See Figure 2)
Projections in the chart are
based on the same 1990-2014 compound average growth rates contained in the table, not the entire
FAO 1961-2014 dataset. This data
subset is employed primarily due
to the dramatic slowdown in beef
and buffalo production growth that
occurred in about 1980. Using pre1980 data overestimates projected
2025 beef production.
Aquaculture here includes
October/November 2017 ❙ www.WATTAgNet.com
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cost. A major exception is turkey,
ranked near the CAGR bottom, but
more feed efficient than pork.
Another important factor is
consumer acceptance. The fastest
growing species are almost universally acceptable. That would include all poultry products and fish.
Beef and pork both face significant
religious and cultural barriers that
limit demand in some parts of the
world. Despite excellent feed efficiency, turkey meat has just never
caught on outside North America
and parts of Europe.
Ruminants rank very low on
global growth rate despite being
able to convert grass to meat. It has
been argued that the ability to utilize grass that would otherwise not
be used for food production is a ruminant competitive advantage. The
downside for ruminants is that the
requirement for grazing land also
limits scale of operation - unless
the animals are confined and fed
compound feeds. Ruminants are
not as efficient as monogastric animals in converting grains and oilseeds into meat. The result is that,
in general, ruminants are not cost
competitive with modern aquaculture, poultry and pig systems.
There are major differences
in competitiveness among
the species that make up the
global animal protein supply.
farmed fish and shrimp. Growth
rates are more than triple pork, and
five or more times that of ruminants. Those who have not looked
at aquaculture recently may be surprised at its scale and growth rate.
That may be because it is largely
an Asian phenomenon, and within
Asia heavily concentrated in China,
India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Asia
accounts for about 88 percent of
global category production.