Soybean
China
Indonesia
South Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
2005/2006
28,317
1,187
1,190
389
108
1,473
46
2006/2007
28,726
1,309
1,231
444
167
1,532
70
2007/2008
37,816
1,147
1,232
504
41
1,753
130
2008/2009
40,700
1,200
1,130
475
50
1,500
140
Soybean meal
China
Indonesia
South Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
2005/2006
837
2,071
1,773
779
1,374
2,042
1,722
2006/2007
32
2,237
1,870
899
1,357
2,275
2,373
2007/2008
203
2,429
1,760
924
1,213
1,934
2,439
2008/2009
202
2,450
1,850
900
1,315
2,100
2,300
Corn 2005/2006 2006/2007
China 62 16
Indonesia 1,443 1,069
South Korea 8,483 8,731
Malaysia 2,517 2,363
Philippines 321 163
Thailand 121 100
Vietnam 475 650
In thousand tonnes, *Figures show forecasts, Source: USDA (Oct 2009)
Demand for grains and oilseeds is expected to increase during 2010.
2007/2008
41
294
9,311
3,181
58
250
500
2008/2009
50
100
7,000
2,000
400
500
600
country’s largest feed producer, secured
3,000 MT of Thai corn in one of the largest
purchases by a Chinese manufacturer to
date, signalling robust demand from Asia’s
giant economy.
The late September sale came in as dry
weather cut estimates of Chinese output
by 5 million MT to 155 million. This put
severe doubts on maize self-sufficiency in
China, which until as recently as 2003 had
been a net corn exporter.
Thanks to a bountiful harvest in the
2008/09 marketing year, sizeable maize and
soya bean stocks have helped balance out
recent production declines in China. The
extent to which more imports will be needed will hinge largely on feed demand, which
on all counts appears to hold steady.
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2010 | WATTAgNet.com
Broiler production in China is expected
to firm to slightly higher in 2010. The hog
industry, which was hampered by the coun-
try’s H1N1 outbreak in June, will see modest
growth of some 4% to 50.3 million MT on
year partly due to this year’s weak output.
Based on these estimates, the USDA raised
Chinese soya bean import demand by 1 mil-
lion MT for the 2009/10 crop with domestic
demand up about 5% to 54 million MT.
1,600
1,200
558
125
1,705
200
Change from 08/09-09/10
- 2.95
33.33
6. 19
17.47
150.00
13.67
42.86
*2009/2010
200
2,600
1,850
950
1,450
2,208
2,500
Change from 08/09-09/10
- 2.00
150.00
0.00
50.00
135.00
108.00
200.00
*2009/2010
50
100
7,500
2,600
400
500
700
Change from 08/09-09/10
0.00
0.00
500.00
600.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
that imported corn can be some $30-40
cheaper than domestic supplies even
with a 1% import duty and value added
tax, China will likely import more corn into
the current marketing year, revealed a
Singapore-based trader.
Chinese imports are likely to be aimed
at preserving stock levels and putting a hold
on prices. Estimates from the Development
and Research Centre of the State Council
put the country’s stock-to-consumption ratio
for grain at 17-18%, helped by bumper grain
harvests in previous consecutive years.
Daphne Tan is a Singapore-based
freelance writer. She can be reached
at d_thq@yahoo.com.
